Singapore, Nov. 13 - The current high price environment for most commodities will likely continue for several years more before supply catches up with rising demand, said Ricardo Leiman, Chief Operating Officer of global commodities supply chain manager Noble Group.
"It'll take another two to three years just for supply to adjust to (current) demand" and by that time, who knows how much demand will rise from current levels, said Leiman in an interview.
Monday Noble reported a revenue of $5.6 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, the second-highest level in the company's history, reflecting the broad-based boom in most of business segments including agriculture, metals, minerals and ores, energy products and logistics.
Notably, revenue from agriculture for that quarter surged 64% to $1.9 billion from the same period last year. Leiman said he is confident soft commodities will bring in more hard cash for the company, going forward.
"Agriculture is one area that we will continue to invest in, and probably more significantly in the future," said Leiman, while adding that Noble's general approach is to have a balanced portfolio in all assets.
The Hong Kong-based, Singapore-listed company is now one of the top three soybean crushers in China, where it recently acquired its fourth soybean crushing facility. It is also one of the top five players globally in the trade of grains, coffee, cocoa and cotton.
High growth markets such as China, which accounts for 44% of world imports and whose soybeans imports have been growing at a compound annual rate of 31% for the past seven years, are key to Noble's growth.
Analysts in investment banks such as Macquarie have called soft commodities the next boom sector as Chinese consumers now spend more on quality food and clothing than ever before.
Leiman said further rise in commodity prices will largely depend on how fast China's economy continues to grow. "Will China continue to grow by 10% a year, or will it decrease to 5%" is the question, he said.
Seeking Stability In Volatile Environment
As for its own growth plans, Leiman said Noble, which has a market capitalization of around $4.3 billion, will continue to grow "organically" through the acquisition of small to medium-sized companies where "sustainable value can be created."
Noble, however, is unlikely to go for "enormous acquisitions which will create significant integration risks," he said.
While declining to comment on the impact of BHP Billiton's attempt to acquire the U.K-based Rio Tinto Plc (RTP), Leiman said "the more concentrated the sector, the more opportunities there will be to find small-sized companies to consolidate (with)."
"The price of iron ore is on the uptrend and that will be positive for our company," he said.
Noble, which is a growing supplier of iron ore to China, recently acquired stakes in Brazilian and Australian iron ore mining companies. It has also integrated its iron ore division with its steel and ferro alloys divisions for greater synergy.
With the line now blurring between food and fuel, Noble is also seeing some unexpected synergy between these two sectors of its business.
Sugar Prices Unlikely To Rise For Another Two Years
The underperformer in Noble's portfolio this year has been its sugar division, due to oversupply from India, Leiman said. Revenue fell 15% in the sugar division during the first nine months of 2007 compared to the same period last year mainly due to a sharp fall in prices.
"The situation looks unlikely to change for the next two years unless there is some climatic event that drastically reduces the sugar crop, but we believe that demand for sugar as a biofuel feedstock should provide price support," said Leiman.
But with a 53% on year increase in revenue for the third quarter, Noble's diversified portfolio has allowed it to manage the volatility of commodities prices, he noted.
"Agricultural commodities prices are more volatile as they are prone to cyclical supply shocks, as in the case of wheat which hit record highs before falling through, while other sectors such as energy or metals require a longer lead time to adjust to demand and thereafter are less prone to climactic events. We want to continue to have a balanced portfolio and will do so by investing in all assets," said Leiman.