New York, March 13 - The eroding economy is causing consumers to chow down - downscale, that is.
Americans are increasingly eating at home, choosing cheaper main courses and rounding out their meals with less expensive store brands.
It's being called the "steak to chicken" phenomenon, with consumers trading down to lower-cost foods and eating out less to alleviate one of the biggest expenses they contend with.
Just Thursday, the Commerce Department said purchases at eating and drinking establishments fell 0.4% in February, the largest drop for any sector except those in the debilitated auto and housing groups.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. appears to be benefiting from the shift. The company "is seeing a step-up in demand" for its Sam's Choice pizza, as well as for such private label products as meat and bread, said Andrea Thomas, senior vice president for private brands.
Thomas sees it as "a function of taste and economics."
Entire food categories appear to be affected by the downshift. Discount warehouse club Costco Wholesale Corp. is seeing some "mix change" from beef to such less expensive entrees as chicken and pork, said Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti in an interview.
The company has also sold more of its private label foods over the past year, which Galanti attributes to both the tepid economy and natural growth of the brands.
Galanti pointed to the company's Kirkland Signature brand, which grew to 18% of total sales at Costco from 17% over the past year. Sales rose more than $600 million, a considerable showing of extra consumer demand in just a year's time.
Target Corp. has also been seeing a sales pickup for its food brands, like Archer Farms, and bargain-seeking shoppers may be playing a role, given that private label prices industrywide are generally 20% lower than those of comparable brand products.
And with the U.S. Agriculture Department estimating that food inflation will be 3.5% to 4.5% in 2008, Deborah Weinswig, retail analyst at Citigroup, feels the trend in cutting back will not only continue, but expand.
"Higher food prices will likely force more consumers to buy less expensive foods," Weinswig said.
BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. seems "to be benefiting from a reduction in casual dining" at restaurants, said investor relations vice president Cathy Maloney.
In the last few months especially, sales have been "very, very strong" for items like rotisserie chickens, prepared foods and produce, Maloney said.
At the same time, there is "some trading down in proteins to items like less expensive cuts of meat," Maloney said.
Some retailers are making it easier for budget-conscious consumers to take advantage of their offerings.
Supervalu Inc., partially in response to the slower economy, is grouping together all the ingredients for meals and positioning them in the front of stores.
The supermarket tailors the offerings to serve regional palates. Boston stores, for instance, might carry the makings for seafood chowder.
The strategy jibes with current conditions.
"With gas prices where they are, people are just stopping for their meals on the way home," said Citi's Weinswig.
The trend does not appear to be confined to those on the lower end of the salary scale.
Safeway Inc. is seeing trading down in upper-end areas like the ultra-premium wine category, Chief Executive Steven Burd said during the supermarket chain's fourth-quarter earnings call.
And then there are those who are having it both ways.
A senior executive at a large public company recalled spending several hundred dollars on an Hermes sweater only to head over to discounter Costco to wrap up his shopping.