New York, April 7 - Pernod Ricard SA, the soon-to-be owner of Absolut vodka, faces challenges for the prestige brand as upstarts keep edging for a slice of the largest, booming sector of the liquor market.
Pernod USA Chief Executive Alain Barbet said last week in New York it was too early to give specific plans for the brand, since the costly $8.9 billion (5.63 billion euro) acquisition has yet to be made final.
But Barbet told Reuters in an e-mail exchange that the French company plans to apply its experience in launching higher-end versions of its drinks, such as Chivas Regal 25 Year Old scotch and Jameson Rarest Vintage Reserve whiskey.
U.S. competition is fierce: at least 59 new kinds of vodka hit shelves last year after at least 60 the year before.
Pernod needs to keep Absolut fresh, especially for younger drinkers who may have missed its iconic ad campaign that began in 1980 featuring a haloed bottle and the words "Absolut Perfection."
"Absolut has been holding its own for a long time now," said Eric Schmidt, research director for Beverage Information Group, a market research firm specializing in the alcoholic drinks industry. He forecast continued growth for Absolut, helped by a new ad campaign.
Sales of vodka, the biggest spirits segment, rose 6.7 percent to 52.7 million cases last year, while whiskey only grew 0.2 percent to 45 million cases, Schmidt said.
"They didn't pay an outrageous price for this," Schmidt said of Pernod's bid, which was 27 percent higher than the high end of analysts' estimates and beat out three other suitors.
Schmidt said the multiple was in line with other deals, such as Diageo PLC's $900 million bid for half of Dutch vodka Ketel One and Bacardi Ltd's 2004 purchase of Grey Goose, for roughly $2 billion.
MARKET PRESSURE
But in markets like New York, where super high-end vodkas are a status symbol, Absolut has lost ground.
"Absolut is still a big category, but I don't think it carries the cachet it once did, in New York," said Steven Kaiden, owner of Winfield-Flynn Ltd Wines & Spirits in Manhattan, whose sales of Absolut fell 6 percent last year.
"In the New York market, Ketel One holds more weight as a luxury brand," he said. "(Pernod's) challenge is to revive the brand and give it some cachet that it's luxury again."
Absolut sales could have been hurt recently as price rises have made it less of a bargain compared with its premium rivals, said Kaiden, whose 1-liter prices are $42.99 for Grey Goose, $33.99 for Ketel One, and $32.99 for Absolut.
The popularity of vodka, sometimes touted for its "clear" or "pure" taste, depends mostly on marketing, and as new labels proliferate, finding a new message is nearly impossible, said Ted Wright, managing partner of Fizz, a marketing firm specializing in beverages.
In what Wright calls a "dead market," the messages are highly spirited.
Vodkas now carry the names of Donald Trump, Ed McMahon and Sean "Diddy" Combs, come in flavors like mango, pepper and mandarin blossom, and bear claims of being "handmade" or "infused with guarana and taurine" to provide an energy boost.
"In a category where there are hundreds of new entrants every year, one is going to expect that you're going to be nicked and cut," said Monsell Darville, brand manager of Grey Goose, the largest vodka brand at the highest end of the market.
ECONOMIC SHAKEDOWN
Nonetheless, worldwide sales of Absolut grew about 4 percent last year, to 10.7 million 12-bottle cases, or nearly as much as all the tequila sold in the United States (10.9 million) over the same period, according to Beverage Information Group.
About half that came from the United States, making it the No. 2 vodka after Diageo's Smirnoff, whose U.S. sales grew 6 percent, to 9 million cases.
But Smirnoff is cheaper than Absolut and other high-end rivals like Grey Goose, Ketel One, Gruppo Campari's Skyy and Stolichnaya. While Absolut is bigger than those niche brands, its growth is often slower.
According to Schmidt, last year Stoli sales from wholesalers rose 4 percent, to 2.2 million cases; while Skyy rose 5 percent, to 2.4 million cases; and Ketel One rose 6 percent, to 1.9 million cases.
The outlier is Grey Goose, Schmidt said, saying the French vodka's sales jumped 25 percent, to over 3 million cases.
And though Grey Goose sales have not slowed in the weak U.S. economy, buyers may become more selective as consumers drink and dine out less frequently, Darville noted.
"There's always going to be growing cynicism in a category where there's so many choices and so many claims being made," he said. "But you know, there's nothing better than a tough economy to sort out the men from the boys."