Chicago, May 5 - Myanmar's rice crop likely suffered damage from a fierce weekend cyclone, analysts and meteorologists said Monday.
Cyclone Nargis caused a "significant storm surge" when it reached Myanmar's coastline and likely flooded some production areas, according to Cropcast Agricultural Weather. The worst damage was noted in the low-lying Irrawaddy delta, home to some of the highest concentration of rice in the region, the private weather firm said.
"Based off of the storm track, it appears that up to two-thirds of the rice in the region may have taken a nearly direct hit from the storm, with the worst damage focusing on the southwestern third of the belt," Cropcast said. "Due to the fact that the region is already essentially at sea level, flooding from the storm surge was significant."
Myanmar is an agricultural country, and the agriculture sector is the backbone of its economy, according to the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization. Agriculture contributes 44% of the country's gross domestic product and employs 61.4% of the labor force, the organization said.
Still, Myanmar is not a major producer of rice in the world. It was expected to produce 11.3 million tons of rice in 2007-08, or about 2.7% of the world's crop, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
"It's not like a huge producer, but it's a fair amount," said Bill Nelson, analyst for Wachovia Securities. "Probably some damage was done there."
The U.N. has offered its assistance to Myanmar authorities following the deadly cyclone, which made landfall Friday in the Irrawaddy region, about 250 kilometers southwest of the capital, Yangon, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Thousands have reportedly been killed.
A U.S. government official in Washington said efforts to assess the damage from the cyclone had just begun and that it was too early to judge the impact on rice production. Myanmar generally plants some rice in May, and that could have been affected, the official said.
The cyclone had been pointed at Bangladesh until it turned and slammed into neighboring Myanmar, meteorologists said. It's not known exactly what stage of planting or development Myanmar's crop was in, although Bangladesh was "very concerned" about the storm because growers had a standing crop there, said Ed Taylor, analyst for firstgrain.com.
The warning for Bangladesh came less than six months after cyclone Sidr caused massive devastation in southern Bangladesh, leaving more than 3,000 people dead. Humanitarian aid poured into Bangladesh after Sidr, and Myanmar may see similar relief donations.
Chicago Board of Trade rice futures rose Monday in a rebound from a sharp recent sell-off. Concerns about damage from the cyclone may have given traders a reason "not to press the downside too hard after the recent sales," Nelson said. Rice donations to Myanmar also could spark some future demand in the rice market, he said.