New York, May 13 - The U.S. economic downturn has "ingredients we haven't seen before," like the steep rise in gasoline prices, making it hard to determine how long the difficult climate will persist, the chief financial officer of Wal-Mart Stores Inc said in an interview Tuesday.
"While we've seen gas prices go up historically, we've never seen the slope of the line -- that increase -- be so pronounced," Tom Schoewe told Reuters. "It's difficult to say how long this is going to last."
Schoewe made the comments after Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, reported a nearly 7 percent jump in first-quarter profits.
But Wal-Mart indicated results for its current quarter could miss Wall Street estimates as it contends with a tough economic environment, higher transportation costs and customers who are running out of money between paychecks.
The company forecast earnings per share of 78 cents to 81 cents for its second quarter. Analysts on average are expecting 81 cents.
Schoewe said the retailer is being "appropriately conservative" with its fiscal second-quarter forecast.
"These are volatile times and we want to make sure that we run our stores conservatively," he said.
Wal-Mart typically updates its quarterly earnings forecast after the second month of each quarter.
Schoewe said as Wal-Mart has "better visibility into the likes of the impact of stimulus checks, continued progress in our stores, we'll have an opportunity after the second month of our quarter ... to update earnings guidance."
The "stimulus checks," or tax rebate checks, are part of Washington's $152 billion 2008 economic stimulus package, and about 130 million households are receiving some $100 billion in cash to spend.
To entice shoppers to use rebate dollars in its stores, Wal-Mart is offering to cash their checks and is lowering prices on staple goods such as cereal and lunch meat.
FUEL A HEADWIND
On a recorded call, Wal-Mart executives said higher transportation costs would remain a "potential headwind" for the rest of the year, and Schoewe said he was worried about the ongoing jump in fuel prices.
"It takes a lot for us to call something out on our expense line and say, 'This is going to be a headwind'," he said. "So we're concerned."
The difficult climate and rising gasoline prices are taking a toll on its shoppers, he said.
"As we move from the 15th of the month to the end of the month, it's obvious that our customer is running out of money," he said. "Whether that be the size of the transaction, the number of items in the transaction, everything is pointing in the same direction, and that is that the customer is running out of money between paychecks."
Early in the month, he said customers are buying larger, bulk-size merchandise, seeking a cheaper price per unit.
But as cash runs out by the end of the month, he said shoppers are buying smaller sizes because they no longer have the money to purchase in bulk.
SLOWING BUYBACKS
Wal-Mart's shares have risen 22 percent year-to-date through Monday, outperforming the 29 other components of the Dow Jones Industrial average.
Last June, Wal-Mart said it would buy back $15 billion of its stock, but given the recent surge in its stock price, Schoewe said the retailer has slowed repurchases of its shares.
"As the price is going up, we clearly have not discontinued share repurchase, but it has been moderated some," he said.
The retailer's CFO said it still has authorization to repurchase roughly $7 billion of additional shares under the current plan.
Wal-Mart is keeping a close eye on expenses, but Schoewe said Wal-Mart will continue to renovate its discount stores and Sam's Club warehouse locations.
"Retailers, historically have gotten into trouble when they try to save money by not remodeling their stores," he said. "We're not going to fall into that trap."
He said there will be "more aggressive" repair, maintenance, and remodeling taking place over the next 12 to 24 months "to ensure that the shopping experience is good for our customers and members."