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US Rice Falls Hard on Big Crop Outlook

Source: Reuters
16/05/2008

Chicago, May 15 - U.S. rice fell further on Thursday amid outlooks for a big global rice crop this year that triggered a slide from the record high set just three weeks ago, traders said.

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"I think in rice the bull market run is over, now we go down for awhile," said Dan Cekander, analyst for Newedge Trading.

U.S. rice for July delivery was down the $1.15 per cwt trading limit at $20.34 per cwt and down 20 percent from its record high of $25.07 set on April 24.

The corn market recovered after dropping all week amid better crop planting weather in the United States. But soybeans fell on hopes the Argentine government and farmers may resolve their differences and on a big U.S. soy acreage number released by widely followed analytical firm Informa Economics.

Wheat was up and down but closed higher on solid exports and a rebound from a series of price drops.

The U.S. Agriculture Department last Friday forecast that global rice stocks would grow in the coming year after a projected record crop, helping to dampen fears about the supply of the world's food staple.

Vietnamese rice prices have fallen up to 15 percent this month as stockpiles remain ample ahead of a new harvest, raising pressure on the government to end an export ban that has helped lift world prices to record highs.

However, global rice prices may be finding support from news cyclone-hit Myanmar faces a food shortage and may need to import rice if farmers in devastated areas do not get immediate help to plant a new crop, the U.N. food agency said on Thursday.

Traders said U.S. corn underwent a short-covering bounce near the close of trading. Some traders who had been selling the corn market this week bought back or covered their short sales in the corn market.

Corn for July delivery ended up 2-3/4 at $5.99 per bushel.

Analytical firm Informa Economics on Thursday forecast this year's U.S. corn acreage at 87.2 million, above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's outlook for 86.0 million but down sharply from last year's 93 million, the most in more than 60 years.

Corn prices have been supported by wet weather that was slowing U.S. corn plantings. The crop needs to be planted by roughly mid-May to avoid losing maximum yield potential.

Soy for July SN8> delivery was down 32 cents at $13.47-1/2 per bushel.

"Beans are down on a conciliatory speech by Argentina's president," said Vic Lespinasse, analyst for grainanalyst.com.

Argentina is the world's third largest soy exporter and largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil and a farmer strike has been hampering exports.

Argentina's president has made a unity appeal and Argentine farmers debated whether to lift an eight-day-old strike. A farm leader said late on Thursday that farmers were likely to continue their strike against higher taxes on grains exports.

Traders took note that Informa Economics on Thursday estimated 2008 soybean acreage in the United States at 73.3 million, up 2.0 million acres from the company's previous estimate of 71.3 million.

However, Informa's soy acreage number is below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast for 74.8 million.

The U.S. wheat market was up and down but showed signs of life after recent slides took the market down nearly 42 percent from the record highs set in late February.

Forecasts for big global wheat production this year had been weighing on the wheat market, but now there are signs prices may have fallen enough to bring in some bargain buying.

"I think wheat is up just because it has been beat up so bad," Cekander said.

One reason for firm wheat markets was the U.S. Department of Agriculture report on Thursday that more than a half million tonnes of U.S. wheat were sold for export last week, traders said.

"Wheat is up only because of the export sales, the new-crop sales number was pretty good," a trader said.

Traders had expected wheat sales from 400,000 to 600,000 tonnes.

"The wheat number was within expectations, so I don't think it was that big of a deal," Cekander said.

Wheat for July delivery was up 7-1/2 cents at $7.71-1/2 per bushel.



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