London, May 30 - Lausanne-based consultancy Kingsman SA on Friday revised up its forecast for the 2008/09 global sugar surplus to 3.29 million tonnes, from its previous forecast for a surplus of 2.86 million tonnes.
In a statement, Kingsman forecast global sugar production in 2008/09 at 166.3 million tonnes (170.4 million in 2007/08), and consumption of 163.0 million tonnes (159.13 million in 2007/08).
Last week, Kingsman revised its estimate of the 2007/08 global sugar surplus to 11.34 million tonnes from a 9.13 million tonne surplus previously.
"Compared to the 2007/08 final estimate issued last week (surplus 11.34 million tonnes), the 2008/09 surplus appears small," Kingsman said in a statement.
"It does, however, contrast with our forecast in late 2007 of a small deficit."
Kingsman initially switched to surplus because of the likely reaction of producers to high market prices in February/March 2008.
"That situation has changed and given the sharp fall in 2008 sugar prices, the centre-south Brazil estimate has been tempered," Kingsman said, now forecasting centre-south Brazilian sugar output at 30.8 million tonnes.
Brazil is the world's top sugar producer and exporter, with the vast bulk of its output grown in the centre-south.
The Indian sugar production cycle is on the downswing, but Kingsman said it was reluctant to move quickly to some of the lower numbers circulating in the market. India is the world's number two sugar producer and top sugar consuming nation.
Kingsman estimated India's 2007/08 sugar output at 29 million tonnes, and forecast production in 2008/09 at 25.58 million tonnes.
"Domestic prices have remained relatively strong in the face of high stocks and the switch into alternative crops may have been less than expected," Kingsman said.