June 2 - Marketing Year (MY) 2008/09 coffee production is forecast at 51.1 million 60-kg bags, up 36 percent compared to previous MY, as a consequence of the biennial production cycle of arabica trees. Coffee exports for MY 2008/09, are projected at 28 million bags, up 4 percent from previous season, due to higher availability of the product. Carry-over stocks for MY 2008/09 are forecast at 6.3 million bags, up sharply from extremely low stocks for MY 2007/08.
Production
The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO)/Sao Paulo estimates Marketing Year (MY) 2007/08 (July- June) Brazilian coffee production at 37.6 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), green equivalent, unchanged from previous estimates. Arabica and robusta production should account for 26.3 and 11.3 million bags, respectively. According to industry sources, over 95 percent of the Brazilian 2007/08 crop has already been marketed.
Coffee production for MY 2008/09 (July-June) is forecast at 51.1 million 60-kg bags, green equivalent, a 36 percent increase compared to the previous MY. Higher production is mainly due to the biennial production cycle of arabica trees, which are experiencing a highproduction year and are expected to produce 38.5 million bags, up 12.2 million bags relative to previous crop. Robusta trees should account for 12.6 million bags, up 12 percent compared to previous crop.
Post conducted field trips to major coffee producing areas to evaluate the MY 2008/09 production. Trips were made during the February-April 2008 period to the states of Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Parana and Sao Paulo to observe vegetative development, cherry set and fruit formation. Information for other producing states was obtained from government sources, state secretariats of agriculture, producers associations, cooperatives and traders. Both Arabica and Robusta coffee trees benefited from good weather conditions during blossoming in the second semester of 2007. The dry weather that prevailed in August and September 2007 partially offset initial prospects for a better crop. However, steady rains from October 2007 – April 2008 supported stable fruit setting and development of the cherries, thus resulting in good yields.
The expected increase in production was also supported by improved prices throughout 2007, especially for robusta coffee, which provided incentive for better crop management and higher use of inputs. The table below shows forecast production by state and variety for MY 2008/09, as well, as production estimates for MY 2001/02 to MY 2007/08.
