London, June 6 - Fortis said on Friday it expects a third successive global cocoa deficit in 2008/09, projecting a slightly smaller shortfall of 21,000 tonnes, down from 29,000 tonnes in 2007/08.
The investment bank said in a monthly report that global production should increase but grinding should also rise despite slower economic growth. "The all-important West African main crop should be good to very good, given the plentiful rainfall over the region recently, which has brought soil moisture conditions to an almost ideal state in what is now the start of the critical development period," the report said.
The head of the International Cocoa Organization said in an interview late last month that he expected the global cocoa market to move into surplus in 2008/09 as high prices stimulate production.
Cocoa had a more substantial shortfall of 284,000 tonnes in 2006/07, according to Fortis figures.
Fortis put global net production in 2008/09 at 3.76 million tonnes, up from 3.66 million a year earlier. Total grindings were seen edging up to 3.78 million from 3.69 million. "We expect a strong recovery from the less than ideal start to the development of the new main crop in Ivory Coast. Indonesia should also have a larger crop than the current season, although the possible return of an El Nino later this year will create the risk of disappointment," Fortis said.