Despite a downward correction, with the ICO composite indicator price falling from 142.99 US cents per lb on 1 July to 132.17 US cents per lb on 31 July, prices remained firm, with the July monthly average at 132.78 US cents per lb compared to 130.51 US cents per lb in June. This firmness reflects the general increase in prices of agricultural and mineral commodities. In response to these rising price levels, retail prices have been going up in most importing countries.
Opening stocks in Brazil for crop year 2008/09 totalled 11 million bags, the lowest level recorded since the early 1980s. Even though the current Brazilian crop is likely to be large, because of the biennial crop cycle, it is likely that some of this crop will need to be retained to meet domestic consumption and export requirements in 2009/10. Exports by all exporting Members during June totalled 8.3 million bags, compared to 8.1 million bags in May. Exports during the first nine months of coffee year 2007/08 (October 2007 – June 2008) fell by 4.3% compared to the figure for the same period in coffee year 2006/07, down from 74.52 million bags to 71.29 million. During the first nine months of coffee year 2007/08, exports of Brazilian Naturals and Robustas fell by 10.2% and 7.1%, respectively, while those of Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 8.7% and 1%.
Total exports during the first six months of calendar year 2008 fell by 2.8% compared to the same period in 2007. Exports for the first six months of calendar year 2008 fell in some countries, in particular, Vietnam (-18.1%), Brazil (-6.1%) and India (-5.5%) compared to their levels during the same period in 2007. The possibility of increasing production in response to the firmness in coffee prices is limited by the weakness of the US dollar and the rising costs of production and farm upkeep.