Manila, Aug 18 - The Philippines' annual rice and corn production this year is likely to fall short of targets as rising costs of fertiliser inputs bite, new forecasts from the government's agriculture statistics office showed on Monday.
The new forecasts would weigh on the government's goal of achieving at least around 4 percent growth in farm output this year and the country's preferred rice stockpile that is equivalent to 25 to 30 days of consumption by year-end.
The Philippines, the world's biggest buyer of the grain so far this year, is expected to produce an estimated 16.94 million tonnes of rice in 2008, 2.1 percent below its target of 17.3 million tonnes but still higher than its 2007 output of 16.24 million tonnes, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) said in a report posted on its website.
While the rains in the third quarter are expected to aid irrigation and increase areas devoted to rice planting, farmers' hesitation to use costly fertilisers may lower actual yields by 4.5 percent to 3.65 tonnes per hectare in the period, the BAS report said.
Field reports indicated a 30 percent dip in fertiliser use in paddy fields all over the archipelago, the agriculture department said earlier this month.
Annual corn output is expected to reach 7 million tonnes, 5.4 percent below the target of 7.4 million tonnes this year, but higher than the 6.74 million tonnes it produced last year.
Corn production in the second half is expected to decline by 6.8 percent from a year ago, with areas harvested and yields per hectare also falling 3.6 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.
The expected declines were brought about by the transfer to the first half of some corn planting meant for the second half due to the early onset of the rainy season in May, the adverse effects of a strong typhoon in June, and reduced fertiliser use, the BAS said.
Agricultural production, which accounts for about a fifth of economic output in the Philippines, grew an annual 5.4 percent in the second quarter and 4.7 percent in the first half.
Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap said on Friday the country did not need to import more of its national staple for this year despite risks to its 2008 rice output after it spent a record $1.54 billion to buy 2.3 million tonnes of the grain this year.
But the Philippines, which imports about 10 percent of its annual rice needs, may start buying for its 2009 requirements towards the end of this year after reviewing rice output data and planting trends sometime in the fourth quarter, officials said.