Hanoi, Aug 26 - Vietnam's coffee exports will rise by an estimated 33.6 percent this month from last August to 1 million bags, the country's statistics office said on Monday.
But cumulative coffee exports between October 2007 and this month from the world's second-largest producer after Brazil would drop 23.3 percent to 889,000 tonnes, or 14.82 million 60-kg bags, the General Statistic Office said in its monthly report.
Coffee exports in August are estimated to bring in $138 million, suggesting an average export price of $2,300 a tonne, up 37 percent from the average of $1,678 in the same month last year.
The office lifted its estimate of shipments in the first seven months of the year to 668,000 tonnes, from 662,000 tonnes estimated earlier but did not provide any reason for the upward revision.
August's shipments would bring Vietnam's coffee exports in the first eight months of 2008 to 728,000 tonnes, or 12.13 million bags, down 22.4 percent from a year earlier.
But revenues would rise 9.2 percent to $1.54 billion, the statistics office said.
Vietnam may still hold around 2 million bags in stock, but that is only half the amount that remained at the end of last August. The 2007/2008 crop produced 18 million bags, while domestic consumption runs at 1 million bags.
Vietnam's coffee crop year lasts from October to September.
Going by traders' estimates, the remaining stock available for sales would be less than 100,000 tonnes.
The estimated stock left in the country does not include the volume carried over from the previous 2006/2007 crop year, which could be at least 80,000 tonnes, traders said.
Farmers often retain part of their beans to sell or blend with newly harvested beans in October and early November before the harvest peaks from late November.
The Vietnam Coffee Association, the industry watchdog, has forecast the next harvest will yield about 15 million bags, lower than industry estimates of about 21.5 million bags.
Traders said sufficient water supply and prices advancing 30 percent this year meant farmers had taken better care of their trees.
Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta beans, used mainly in making instant coffee.