London, October 02, 2008 - Sugar offtake in India, the world's largest consumer of the sweetener, is projected to rise to 22.5-23 million tonnes, including drawdown of stocks, in 2009/10 from 22 million in 2008/09, a senior miller said.
S.L. Jain, director-general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), also told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that Indian sugar output in 2009/10 may not exceed his estimate for production of 20 million tonnes in 2008/09.
Buoyant economic growth in India would support consumption of sugar, although the economy was not immune to the global financial crisis and some mills could suffer from rising loan costs, he said without giving details.
"We cannot remain in isolation. It (the credit crunch) is going to have an impact," Jain said. "But the Indian economy is very vibrant now."
Jain said he expected sugar prices to remain little changed in the near term, underpinned by tight supplies.
"I think prices should remain steady," he said.
Earlier, Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of the Lausanne-based Kingsman consultancy, revised up his 2008/09 global sugar deficit forecast to almost 4.7 million tonnes from a previous forecast for a 3.8 million tonnes deficit.
Sugar prices slipped back after a strong run-up on Wednesday in thin volume with many traders away from their desks attending events ahead of Thursday's London trade dinner.
March raws on ICE fell 0.20 cent to 13.73 cents a lb, while December whites in London eased $5.90 to $381.00.
Jain, visiting London to attend the trade dinner, said he expected India to be a moderate net importer of sugar in 2008/09 and 2009/10, but he gave no figures.
He estimated that Indian opening stocks in 2008/09 could stand at around 8.5-9.0 million tonnes, although some estimates ranged up to 11 million tonnes.
Jain agreed with an assessment from an executive with Brazilian producer Cosan who said Brazil had booked some 300,000-to-400,000 tonnes of raw sugar sales to India, expected to be delivered in the next two months.
The Indian miller said further imports of sugar to India from Brazil, the world's top exporter, were possible in the coming months.
Commercial director Carlos Murilo de Mello said the deal to sell sugar from the centre-south of Brazil was booked in the last two months as Brazil seized opportunities from India's shift from a sugar exporter to importer.