Manila, Oct 29 - Philippine exports of coconut oil will miss a government target of 13 percent growth this year and may end up flat with 2007 on weak demand and falling prices, a senior industry official said on Wednesday.
The Southeast Asian nation, the world's largest exporter of coconut oil, targeted coconut oil exports of 1 million tonnes this year from 886,561 tonnes in 2007, as many plantations recover from typhoon devastation in the last two years.
But the Philippines looked like missing the target, Yvonne Agustin, executive director of the United Coconut Associations of the Philippines, told Reuters.
"To be able to reach 1 million tonnes, we should be exporting more than 100,000 tonnes (a month) from October to December and I think it will be very difficult to do that right now," Agustin said in a telephone interview.
"It's very likely it would be around last year's level only."
In September, the country's coconut oil exports fell for the third straight month, taking shipments for the first nine months of 2008 to 641,758 tonnes.
Philippine shipments of the vegetable oil -- used in food, cosmetics and biodiesel -- have topped 100,000 tonnes just twice this year, in January and April, and fell as low as 36,060 tonnes in August.
Coconut oil prices have fallen to $640 per tonne CIF Rotterdam on Tuesday, from around $1,500 in April.
Traders said the falling prices and European buyers' shift to cheaper palm kernel oil, which can be used interchangeably with coconut oil, had caused the sharp drop in coconut oil exports in the past two months.
"We might also be increasing our domestic consumption because of the expansion in oleochemical capacities," said Agustin, referring to plans by biodiesel producers to boost capacity.
The Philippines sells 80 percent of its coconut oil output overseas, but it accounts for less than 5 percent of the global fats and oils market due to the drop in local production in the past two years and the growing popularity of other vegetable oils, such as palm.
Agustin declined to provide a forecast for 2009 coconut oil exports pending a review of weather expectations and domestic consumption trends.
"But of course our target is for (2009) exports to increase," she said.
There was also a need to increase domestic output, she added.
The country has a capacity to process 5 million tonnes of coconut in terms of copra, or dried coconut kernels, Agustin said, against projected output this year of only 2.5 million tonnes.
She said production of coconut in copra terms reached a record 2.8 million tonnes in 2001.