10 Nov, 2008 - Milk production is forecast to increase 1 percent in 2009, reaching 32.83 million metric tons (MMT) compared to the previous year as dairy operations continue to replace low-yielding domestic cows with imported pedigree animals and genetics.
This will compensate a reduction in cow inventories due to higher annual per cow milk productivity. However, domestic milk output remains well below the target outlined in Russia’s National Priority Project (NPP) for Agriculture. Feed and grain prices started falling last spring and the farmgate price for raw milk dropped in April 2008 to 8-9 RUR/kg1 at a time when retail prices were hitting record levels. In September 2008 raw milk prices did not follow the typical seasonal pattern and remained flat while retail prices continue to grow.
The number of cows in milk is forecast to decrease slightly to 9.7 million head in 2009. Ministry of agriculture officials expect the national herd milk yield average in 2009 to reach 4,000 kilograms per cow compared to 3,798 kilograms per cow in 2007. This is well below the genetic potential of imported pedigree dairy cows and leaves room for considerable growth in Russia’s average per-cow productivity merely through better nutrition, proper veterinary care, and adoption of modern herd management practices. A governmental commission is considering allocating 20 billion rubles from the federal budget to support a new dairy cattle breeding program for a program from 2009-2012. Imports of dry milk almost doubled from January to August 2008 compared to the same period in 2007. In addition, imports of cheese and whey increased substantially by 13 and 60 percent, respectively.
The Russian Federal Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance Service (VPSS) banned 20 Belarusian dairies, dry milk powder from Ukraine, and all dairy products from China after finding them in violation of Russian sanitary regulations. Consumption of domestic raw milk is steadily decreasing due to record high retail prices. Demand for pedigree cattle and bovine genetics remain strong in Russia as dairy operations look to increase productivity by using better genetic stock. The number of imported pedigree dairy cattle will be lower than planned under the National Priority Project in Agriculture due to a tight credit market caused by the global financial crisis.