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Cocoa Rises on Tight Supply Outlook

Source: Reuters
27/11/2008

London, Nov 27 - London cocoa futures rose on fund short-covering due to a tight supply outlook while coffee and sugar futures moved higher on light fund and investor buying on Thursday.

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U.S. markets were shut for Thanksgiving Day.

A cut in Fortis Bank's cocoa supply surplus forecast helped prop up values, while some dealers felt a deficit in 2008/09 was more likely than a surplus due to a sharp deceleration in bean arrivals to ports in Ivory Coast, the world's top grower.

Fortis Bank on Thursday cut its 2008/09 global cocoa surplus forecast to 21,000 tonnes from a previous forecast for a 52,000 tonnes surplus.

Some dealers doubted a surplus was on the cards.

"Unless we see a big pickup (in arrivals) in the next few days, we could see a (global) deficit of 25,000-50,000 tonnes (in 2008/09)," one London cocoa dealer said.

"I can't believe that they (Fortis) have a surplus."

London benchmark second-month cocoa was up 21 pounds or 1.4 percent to 1,501 pounds per tonne, having broken above Wednesday's high of 1,499 pounds. Total volume was a brisk 5,427 lots.

U.S. cocoa futures rallied to a six-week high on Wednesday, buoyed by strong technical buying momentum ahead of the holiday.

Benchmark ICE March cocoa surged $78, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $2,221 per tonne on Wednesday, its highest level on a closing basis since Oct. 15.

London robusta coffee futures rose on fund buying, dealers said.

"Investor buyers followed off from yesterday. They bought up yesterday. It's a common thing -- they've done it in the last few bank holidays in the States," one robusta coffee trader said.

"When the States are not open there is less resistance around, because there is nobody watching the market," the trader said.

Brazil's coffee farmers are enjoying timely plentiful rains for next year's coffee crop, but with soaring costs, trouble finding workers and low selling prices, many say their good fortune ends there.

London white sugar futures rose on light investor buying, with many participants absent due to the closure of the U.S. raw sugar market for Thanksgiving.

London March white sugar was up $3.4 or one percent to $331.0 per tonne in slim turnover of 196 lots at 1210 GMT.

Dealers see medium-term upside potential in prices of sugar due to expectations of a tightening global deficit of the sweetener to 2010.

Premiums for Thai raw sugar halved on Thursday as consumers waited for better offers from Brazil, which was making inroads into the Asian market after a drop in freight rates.

Prices of sugar and cocoa have fared better than other commodities during the global economic downturn and analysts believe expectations of tighter supplies into 2009 can give them both a further boost.



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