Toronto, Dec. 5 - Shares of Loblaw Cos added another 2.5 percent Friday, as analysts boosted their outlook for Canada's biggest grocer one day after the stock soared on speculation that parent George Weston Ltd was looking to take the company private.
Loblaw shares jumped about 5 percent on Thursday on news that Weston was in talks to sell the business of a U.S. subsidiary to Mexican breadmaker Grupo Bimbo.
They added another 85 Canadian cents to C$34.35 around midday on Friday, nearing the 52-week high of C$35.74 they touched in early January.
Analysts speculated that George Weston could use the estimated C$2.5 billion to C$3 billion in proceeds from the U.S. deal to buy the 39.1 percent of Loblaw it does not already own.
"George Weston's recent announcement raises the possibility that the company can increase its stake in Loblaw to the point of privatization," Winston Lee, an analyst at Credit-Suisse, wrote in a note.
"The U.S. baking talks mark a change in thinking that makes privatization of Loblaw a greater possibility."
Lee, who boosted his stock price target for Loblaw to C$33.50 from C$31, estimated the deal for the breadmaking operations of Dunedin Holdings Sarl could fetch between C$2.5 billion and C$3.1 billion, with the total package for taking Loblaw private costing Weston as much as C$4 billion.
Weston got about C$465 million from the October sale of its Neilson Dairy division to Saputo Inc.
Weston spokesman Geoffrey Wilson Friday refused comment on a deal with Bimbo, saying only that the two sides were in discussions concerning the possible sale.
As well as taking Loblaw private, analysts also speculated on a number of other scenarios following a Bimbo deal, including paying down debt, passing the proceeds along to shareholders, making an acquisition -- or even seeing the Weston family taking their own company private.
"Such a sale, if it occurs, is a stunning change in strategic direction. The earlier sale of Neilson Dairy was an opportunistic sale of a non-strategic business at a good price," Desjardins Securities analyst Keith Howlett wrote.
"Our view is that while the Weston family is selling some assets at attractive values it is likely to seek to increase its position in assets which it knows well and may believe contain unrecognized value. We think Loblaw is such an asset."
Howlett raised his stock price target for Loblaw to C$36 a share from C$31.00.
However, TD Newcrest analyst Michael Van Aelst downplayed the idea of taking Loblaw private, saying it would be a costly undertaking given that the grocer is still working to complete an expensive corporate reorganization.
"Given the competitive environment, the economic outlook and that Loblaw is about to embark on a major company-wide IT integration project, we would argue taking Loblaw private and raising debt ratios to do so could be a risky venture for Weston," Van Aelst wrote.
Still he raised his Loblaw target to C$35.00 a share from C$31.00 to a reflect a one-third probability of the deal.