New York, Dec 17 - The International Monetary Fund is likely to cut its 2009 world economic growth forecast again next month, a top IMF official said on Wednesday as he urged more efforts to bolster financial and credit markets.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky said policy actions should include renewed efforts to stabilize advanced economies' financial systems, as well as monetary and budget measures to support final demand.
"While we believe that efforts to stabilize financial conditions and strengthen demand support measures could still enable a gradual recovery beginning in the second half of 2009, it seems likely we will once again reduce our growth forecast, perhaps substantively," he told the Council on Foreign Relations.
"Additional -- and vigorous -- policy action will be needed in order to avoid a serious global downturn," he said.
On Nov. 6, the IMF sharply cut its projections for world growth next year to 2.2 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from an October forecast, and said developed economies were headed for their first full-year contraction since World War Two. Answering a question from the audience he said he hoped deflation, a period of falling prices, would be averted.
He said while financial markets had responded to the aggressive policy measures by some governments, market pressures remain in Europe and the United States.
Virtually all of the measures to tackle the financial market deleveraging and to restore the smooth functioning of markets "have tended to be partial, rather than comprehensive", Lipsky said.
"Thus, it is not surprising that the downturn in credit growth here and abroad shows no sign of ending," he added.
He called for a redoubling of efforts to contain the financial deleveraging without further damaging the economy.
Those steps should include providing liquidity support for financial institutions, recapitalizing banks and removing damaged assets from their balance sheets, he said.
To halt the major fall in global output and to ease substantial uncertainty, governments who can afford it should provide stimulus measures that are diversified and last longer than one or two quarters.
"We think fiscal stimulus should be large," Lipsky said, adding that the IMF suggested global fiscal stimulus should total about 2 percent of world gross domestic product. It should be significantly more than 2 percent of GDP in fiscal spending in some major economies because other countries are not able to contribute at all, he added.
He said global collaboration was key, and that governments should not take any policy successes for granted.
"I'm sure the authorities in the 1930s didn't think they were causing the Great Depression. I'm sure they thought they were doing the right thing at the right time and it proved disastrous."
"It's going to take clarity of thought and strength of vision to make sure we do this right."
Answering an audience question about China and India, he said that both countries could take further policy action to boost domestic demand. Policy measures are "not only available but also appropriate," in both countries, he said.
"In our view China, for example, has ample room for action and we hope success," Lipsky said.
Asked to outline the IMF's attitude to capital controls, Lipsky said, "We don't like them, but in times of crisis sometimes you have to do things you don't want do. For example, in the case of Iceland."
Iceland, Lipsky said, was "an extreme case." The IMF approved a $2.1 billion loan for Iceland on Nov. 19 as part of a package of assistance which totals about $10 billion.
Iceland's major banks and currency had collapsed under the weight of billions of dollars of debt accumulated in an aggressive overseas expansion into financial services.
Lipsky said the relative size of Iceland's banking system meant it was too big for Iceland's government to save.
He warned that while "not of that dramatic scale, there are other cases where there are risks of 'too big to save' financial systems and we have to address that in the future."