New York, Jan 16 - U.S. retail sales will fall in the first half of this year but should rebound in the second as an expected government stimulus package lets consumers return to discretionary purchases, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers' chief economist.
On a conference call on Thursday, Michael Niemira said he expected total U.S. retail sales, including food services, would fall 5 percent in the first half of the year but then rise 2.7 percent in the second half.
Excluding food services sales, retail sales will fall 6.1 percent in the first half and advance 2.7 percent in the second half, he said.
"There's a hell of a lot of pessimism out there that things will never turn around and that's actually the wrong way to look at," Niemira said. "Frankly, at these times, you have to think about what are the catalysts for growth and how do you play it from a retailer's standpoint?"
"If you continue to focus backward in a recession, then you're not positioning your business correctly."
Retail stocks rose on Thursday as investors turned hopeful that the government would provide fresh capital to crisis-hit banks, including Bank of America , while falling oil prices buoyed hopes that lower energy costs will spur business and consumer spending.
Shares of Target Corp rose 3.6 percent to close at $34.92, while Ross Stores Inc advanced 4.2 percent to $30.49 and Kohl's Corp gained 5.7 percent to $37.69.
The rally came as Wall Street analysts said this week that retail stocks may have not yet formed a bottom, noting the industry faces weak sales prospects and consumers that may be permanently altering spending habits.