London, Feb 23 - Kingsman SA on Friday raised its estimate for the 2008/09 global sugar deficit to 11.56 million tonnes from 9.66 million tonnes deficit previously, due largely to lower estimates for Indian and Chinese output.
The Lausanne-based consultancy said in a statement it had adjusted its estimate for Indian output down to 16.97 million tonnes, from 17.9 million previously.
"China is the new surprise factor -- and we have begun the process of adjusting production downwards -- to 13.7 million tonnes from our prior estimate of 14.5 million tonnes," Kingsman said.
Kingsman has projected the 2009/10 global sugar deficit at a more modest 1.6 million tonnes.
Kingsman said that estimates for lower Indian output were a key factor in explaining its larger global deficit estimate for 2008/09.
India, the world's largest sugar consumer, has swung from net exporter to importer.
"India has been the big mover, but crop losses from initial forecasts have also happened in China, the U.S., the EU, Australia and Iran," Kingsman said.