Hanoi, Feb 27 - Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer after Brazil, could harvest less than 16 million bags in 2009/2010 after two good crops, an industry official said on Friday.
The Vietnam Coffee Association has also revised the harvest that ended in January to 16 million bags, down nearly 6 percent from the 17 million bags estimated in December, Chairman Luong Van Tu told Reuters.
Falling production in Vietnam, coupled with a lower output forecast in Brazil, could boost prices of the second most traded commodity globally after crude oil.
In January the International Coffee Organization said a global coffee shortfall was seen in 2009/2010, with output in Brazil set to fall and demand expected to hold up despite the economic downturn.
"In coffee production, one crop can be a loss after a good crop, and the past two crops have been good," Tu said in a telephone interview.
"The output will show a decline because 20 percent of our coffee trees are old and they have not been replaced," he said, adding that the association also took reference from the ICO's reports.
"Recent scattered rains have triggered blossoms at different times and that would also lead to cherry ripening at different times", making it difficult for the harvesting process, he said.
Traders believe the Vietnam Coffee Association often underestimates production figures to boost prices.
The International Coffee Organization estimated Vietnam's previous harvest at 18-20 million bags, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture sized the crop at 19.5 million bags, similar to the median in a Reuters poll of traders last month.
Tu said the association has revised down output from the previous harvest because bad weather during the production cycle has worsened the quality of Vietnamese coffee.
"There is a large volume of rejected black beans and also of small-sized beans," he said.
The higher ratio of such defects as black, broken or small beans emerged because unseasonal rains fell in November and December last year, disrupting the drying process, traders have said.
"Partial drought last year affected several growing areas and that has also affected quality," Tu said.
He added that the coffee association would have a better picture of the latest harvest and of the 2009/2010 crop production after a meeting in early March.
Vietnam's coffee crop year lasts between October and September, starting with a four-month harvest ending in January.