New York, April 28 - A deadly new flu strain is threatening the global economy's nascent recovery and demand for raw materials, but based on recent pandemic scares, there may not be a lasting impact on commodities.
Crude oil, copper, soybeans, corn, coffee and cocoa fell broadly on Monday, with some down up to 3 percent. The virus -- which caused a scare reminiscent of the SARS outbreak in 2003 -- has killed more than 100 people and spread from Mexico to the United States and Europe.
While traders will be quick to sell in a pack in the short term, the outlook for commodities over the longer term had already factored in a range of negative economic scenarios, analysts said.
So the virus' impact on commodities will depend on how serious a health issue the world will be confronted with, they added.
Some think Monday's sell-off is just a knee-jerk reaction.
"At this point, the fear factor may be overblown," said Eric Richardson, chief executive at California's Cambria Investment Management, which advises institutions and high net worth individuals on commodities exposure.
Market data shows that the SARS, or the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -- and the avian flu that followed it between 2004 and 2005 -- hardly shook the foundations of the super rally in commodities taking shape in those years.
"This thing could also pass without any major or real impact on commodities, like the SARS," Richardson said.
Jet fuel was one market that suffered during the SARS outbreak as global air passenger travel fell more than 8 percent -- and over 19 percent in Asia alone -- during the second quarter of 2003.
Even then, U.S. crude oil prices and the broad Reuters-Jefferies CRB commodities index , fell to no more than six-month lows at any point during SARS.
In contrast, the global financial crisis in recent months had driven the CRB, oil and almost all other commodities, to multiyear lows.
"We are down to relatively low levels on many markets and it's going to be hard to press further down unless we actually see some bona fide impact and bona fide pandemic from this flu," said Steve Platt, veteran trader and analyst in a wide range of commodities at Chicago's Archer Financial Services.
U.S. crude and copper prices have risen more than 50 percent since the start of January and grains and softs markets have also began rebounding with investors more confident about the global economy now than they were a few months ago.
If the effects of the current flu worsened, demand for jet fuel -- still weak from the global recession -- could take a hit, analysts said.
Some investors could also exploit the situation by shorting certain commodities, and Monday's slump of around 3 percent in soybeans, cocoa and coffee were among examples, analysts said.
"We could surely see some profiting from price distortions taking place now," said Darrell Jobman, analyst at TraderPlanet.com, in Westley Chapel, Florida.
Adam Sarhan, who runs New York investment advisory The Sarhan Analysis, concurs: "Our job is to look at the markets as a way to make money. We're neutral now on soybeans and cocoa, but they're candidates to short if they go down further."