May 20 - The lack of sufficient rainfall over Kenya's rain-fed coffee crop growing regions and the normal coffee tree off-year cycle will likely yield a MY 2010 (October-September) exportable coffee surplus of just under 850,000 bags.
Calendar year (CY) 2008 was a drought year for most of Kenya and again at this point in CY 2009 the rainy season has not developed on the scale needed to replenish coffee growing area subsoil. Kenya’s producers would like to capitalize on the rising Colombian mild prices (please see graph below), but the climatic and natural fruit-producing cycle may keep them from realizing their goals.
In addition to the public auction in Nairobi, the Government of Kenya recently enabled direct marketing between the exporter and producer. The amounts are small, about 30,000 bags, but important because it opens the door to examine Kenya’s potential to take advantage of high-quality, and/or “Fair Trade” programs. FAS Nairobi forecasts a production decline for MY 2010 to 850 thousand bags primarily due to a succession of poor rainfall seasons in 2008 and 2009 and normal crop-production cycles. However, supportive global prices, as suggested in the graph below, will likely provide farmer impetus to conduct good husbandry practices with the expectation that sufficient rain will yet fall during this coming MY. A severe coffee-berry disease occasioned the pronounced decline in Kenyan MY2007/08 exports.