New Delhi, July 8 - India's June edible oil imports may fall 4 percent from May, registering their first monthly fall since March, while annual growth is likely to slow to 21 percent after doubling in the previous two months.
The mean of estimates from 10 leading traders across India showed that the world's top consumer after China imported 667,400 tonnes in June, up 21 percent from a year ago and 4.2 percent from May.
Forecasts ranged from 600,000 tonnes to 750,000 tonnes.
Import data for June are expected next week.
Estimates of edible oil imports in the first eight months of the marketing year from November ranged from 5.4 million to 5.5 million tonnes, up about 75 percent from 3.1 million tonnes a year ago.
PORT STOCKS
Traders estimated that by end-June, stocks at various ports rose to 739,000 tonnes, up 4 percent from the previous month's 712,000 tonnes. The estimated stock in June includes at least 150,000 tonnes of soyoil, traders said.
"With the dilemma about the duty hike getting over with the budget, high port stocks would get liquidated, keeping prices in check," said a Mumbai-based trader.
Importers bought larger quantities since December to take advantage of low taxes, and expectations of an increase in taxes have boosted imports and stocks at ports in recent months.
India's federal budget on Monday left import duty on edible oils unchanged, disappointing local industry that had been rooting for at least a small increase.
Edible oil imports help keep prices steady and tame the country's inflation rate.
"In the absence of imports, domestic availability will be seriously affected, which may lead to increase in domestic prices," the junior trade minister, Jyotiraditya Scindia said.
PALM, SOYOIL
Traders estimate palm oil imports in June at 450,000 tonnes, with forecasts ranging from 420,000 tonnes to 565,000 tonnes, up 5.0 percent in a year.
Crude soyoil imports are forecast to rise 52 percent to 182,750 tonnes in June from 120,030 tonnes a year ago.
Cargoes containing soyoil from the United States, for the first time in seven years, arrived last month on the western coast.
In June, the landed price of crude palm oil ranged from $655-$795 per tonne, while crude soyoil was at $855-$945 per tonne on India's west coast.
India imports primarily palm oil, mainly crude palm, from Malaysia and Indonesia, and small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.
Traders said India's crude sunflower imports would be about 43,500 tonnes, with forecasts ranging from 25,000 tonnes to 80,000 tonnes, up from 30,100 tonnes in the previous month and zero imports a year ago.