Beijing, July 10 - China, already the world's leading consumer of vegetable oils, will see imports surge over the next decade with farmland scarce and changing eating habits fuelling demand growth, a cabinet think-tank researcher said.
The consumption of cooking oils such as soy and palm grew an average of 9.1 percent to reach 24 million tonnes last year, driven largely by changes in diet triggered by rising incomes, mainly in the countryside, said Cheng Guoqiang, of the State Council Development Research Center.
Consumption will continue to grow at between 6 and 9 percent a year in coming years, he added, suggesting even quicker import growth given limited scope to expand domestic crops without endangering its ability to remain self-sufficient in grains.
"If you compare mainland China with Taiwan, which shares the same dining culture, there is still a lot of room for Chinese consumption to grow," Cheng told an oilseeds conference.
Per capita consumption of cooking oil in China, where oily, fried food is popular on many dining tables, stood at 15.5 kg in 2007, compared to 25 kg in Taiwan, he said.
China is already the world's top importer of soybean, the raw material for both edible oils and animal feed, and there is little immediate alternative to rising dependence on imports, which now meet about two-thirds of its needs.
Soybean imports grew at an average of 27 percent over the past decade, and stood at 37 million tonnes last year, nearly 52 percent of total world trade, Cheng said.
China's palm oil imports have grown by an average of 18 percent over the past ten years, reaching 5.28 million tonnes in 2008, while soyoil imports grew 13 percent a year to nearly 3 million tonnes last year.
China does not produce palmoil, importing instead from top growers Indonesia and Malaysia, while its soy crop areas -- mainly in the northeast provinces -- have produced steady output over past years at about 15 million tonnes a year.
The country's rapeseed areas also remained relatively stable with annual output of between 10 to 13 million tonnes, said Cheng, and it would be forced to cut back production of vital corn or wheat in order to expand its oilseed acreage.
China, the world's largest wheat producer and consumer, needs about 100 million tonnes of wheat a year and grain security is a bigger concern in Beijing than other crops.
It has been state policy to try to be self-sufficient in grain, with world trade volumes insufficient to meet demand and large import rates likely to disrupt the global market.
"To import soybeans is the only choice. But how to achieve a steady inflow, that is the issue we are still studying," said Cheng.
China's soybean crushing industry, the world's largest with a daily capacity of 233,220 tonnes, is dominated by four major players that process half of its soy imports: Wilmar International with 21 percent, followed by state-owned COFCO Co. Ltd , Cargill Inc and Noble Group.
Beijing's stockpiling of soybeans since late last year has made domestic crops expensive and led crushers to import more cargoes this year, driving benchmark soy prices on the Chicago Board of Trade to a mine-month high in June.