Duesseldorf, Aug 3 - Germany's Metro, the world's fourth-largest retailer, expects retail sales to fall further in the coming months, mainly due to rising unemployment, it said on Monday.
"Talking today about green shoots would not be prudent," Chief Executive Eckhard Cordes said after Metro, Germany's biggest listed retailer, posted falling second-quarter sales and profits.
"Clear signs for a fast economic upswing after the severe downfall are so far not discernible ... We expect that retail sales will further decline in the coming months," Metro said.
Metro's second-quarter adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) fell 6.1 percent to 307 million euros ($433 million), above the average estimate of 297 million in a Reuters poll of analysts, while sales fell 3.8 percent to 15.34 billion euros, below the poll average of 15.49 billion.
German retail sales unexpectedly 1.6 percent year-on-year in June, denting hopes that consumer spending could help support Europe's largest economy, though jobless numbers unexpectedly fell in July.
Retailers across the world are struggling in the economic downturn as consumer spending has dropped due to rising unemployment and concern over the global economic crisis.
Carrefour, Europe's No.1 retailer, announced in June its third profit warning in 12 months, underscoring a tough year ahead for the industry.
Metro shares were down about 1 percent at 40.23 euros at 0815 GMT, having been as low as 39.42 euros earlier in the morning, underperforming a 0.5 percent rise in the DJ Stoxx European retail index.
"The figures met market expectations. Nevertheless, the retail environment for the retailers remains challenging, as we see a weak consumer climate in all European countries," said UniCredit analyst Volker Bosse in a note to clients.
Bosse has a "sell" rating on the stock.
GETTING INTO SHAPE
Metro said rising unemployment could further burden the retail business and it did not expect its sales and earnings trends to change significantly in the second half of the year.
Metro, which is more exposed to eastern European markets than other retailers, suffered particularly from weakening exchange rates against the euro in countries such as Russia and Poland.
In January, Metro launched a restructuring programme called Shape 2012, which will axe 15,000 jobs and aims to fatten profits by 1.5 billion euros by 2012 to sustain its mid-term growth target of more than 8 percent a year in adjusted operating earnings. It did not give a full-year outlook.
Its wholesale business Cash & Carry will contribute the largest part the cost savings, it said, adding that Shape would cost about 650 million euros for 2009 to 2011.
Metro trades at around 16.3 times 12-month forward earnings, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine, which weights analyst estimates according to their track record. It is at a premium to Tesco, which trades at 12, and Carrefour, at 14.9.
Analysts said Metro's premium was mainly due to the fact that its business, including Cash & Carry and its consumer electronic operations, was more cyclical than other retailers' and would therefore be more in demand when recovery kicked in.