New York, Aug, 15 - Orange juice futures tumbled Friday after an influential private forecaster caught investors wrong footed with a surprisingly large estimate for Florida's 2009/10 citrus crop, brokers said.
The ICE September Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) contract sank 9.30 cents, 8.5 percent, to finish at $1.005 per lb. At one point the contract was down 10 cents, the limit fall allowed by the exchange.
On Wednesday, juice reached its highest level in almost a year at $1.1215 per lb.
The annual report by secretive agronomist Elizabeth Steger is a major event for the orange juice market. It is one of only two important trade forecasts before the U.S. Agriculture Department releases its first forecast of the marketing year citrus production for Florida in October.
Steger told clients that that Florida's 2009/10 citrus crop would reach 154 million (90-lb), which turned sentiment around after a rally lasting seven of the last eight sessions.
"Always expect a curve ball from her," an analyst who closely follows the juice market said. "The market was building in such a low number, maximum impact had to be a big number."
Traders had expected the report's estimate to be below 150 million boxes due to fears that the fatal and contagious citrus greening disease has hit citrus farms in Florida, the top citrus growing state in the United States.
"The number was a surprise and it got hammered, but it held support and now we have to see how this is digested next week," another analyst said.
Florida's citrus output would normally reach more than 200 million boxes in years past, before storms and disease battered the crop in 2004 and 2005.
Another important forecast by trade house Louis Dreyfus is due out early next week.
Forecaster DTN Meteorlogix said Florida weather conditions in the state are "nearly ideal" for citrus trees.
But with the arrival of hurricane season, the market is edgy about storms that could threaten Florida. The National Hurricane Center said the Atlantic Ocean could see its first named storm of the season by the weekend.