London, Aug 26 - Diageo Plc, the world's biggest spirits group, is expected to show around a 10 percent rise in annual earnings on Thursday, but most eyes will focus on the group's outlook to see if it sets targets for the current year.
The London-based group has suffered from destocking in the United States and weak demand in markets such as Spain, Ireland and Russia, but said in May the weak pound and lower tax will see earnings grow above 10 percent in its year to end-June 2009.
The maker of Johnnie Walker whisky, Smirnoff vodka andGuinness beer is set to post underlying operating profit growthtowards the lower end of its current 4-6 percent range whileunderlying sales are likely to be broadly flat, analysts said.
Analyst Trevor Stirling at Bernstein Research is looking fortop-of-the-range earnings growth helped by an exceptionally lowtax rate, while those at the bottom end of the range point tolower contributions from Diageo's 34 percent stake in MoetHennessy.
Earlier this year, market speculation increased that Diageowould buy out the rest of Moet Hennessy from 66 percent ownerLVMH, and although denied by the French group at thetime some analysts fear Diageo may be tempted in the future topay a high price of the rest of the champagne and cognac group.
A key focus of the results will be if the group offersguidance or targets for the current financial year.
Bernstein's Stirling thinks not, but Philip Morrisey at Citiexpects Diageo to guide to flat to slightly higher underlyingsales and low single-digit percentage operating profit growth.
Most agree that profit growth for the current year to June2010 will be driven by 120 million pounds of planned costsavings and also further foreign exchange gains, while the firmawaits recovery in its key U.S. and European developed markets.
Diageo saw sales growth slow through the later half of 2008but January-to-March sales dipped 7 percent due largely todestocking in the U.S., making nine month sales to end-March2009 flat.
Analysts will look for signs that the U.S. destocking is nowcomplete, whether trading down to cheaper products in developedmarkets has stabilised, potential for price rises and continuedemerging market growth outside Russia and eastern Europe.
Diageo has said it expects the weak pound to boost profitsby 210 million pounds in its year to June 2009, while analystsexpect it to cut its foreign exchange anticipated gain to 120million pounds from 200 million for the year to June 2010.
Diageo's chief rival and No 2 in the spirits world PernodRicard said in July it expects flat sales in its yearto June 2009 and operating profits growth at the lower end ofits own 3-5 percent growth range.
The Paris-based maker of Absolut vodka and Chivas Regalwhisky has like Diageo been hit by a decline in consumption andthe effect of destocking. It reports in early September.
DIAGEO FULL YEAR RESULTS (12 MONTHS TO END-JUNE 2009)
Basic EPS Pre-exceps EPS Sales EBIT
Average 64.6 65.8 +0.4 +3.9
High 72.6 67.7 +2.0 +4.8
Low 57.6 64.0 -0.3 +3.4
Previous 59.3 60.6 +7.0 +9.0
Sample size 7 11 10 9
NOTE - Earnings per share (EPS) is in pence, growth inunderlying sales
and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) inpercent.
Estimates collected from Bernstein, Cazenove, CharlesStanley, Citi,
Deutsche Bank, Evolution Securities, GoldmanSachs, ING Securities,
Investec Securities, JP Morgan, Nomuraand UBS.