New Delhi, Sept 1 - Brazil's exportable sugar surplus is expected to reach 23.3 million tonnes in the year to April 2010, down from an earlier estimate of 24.5 million due to heavy rains, Plinio Nastari, president of the Brazilian Datagro consultancy, said on Tuesday.
Datagro also revised down Brazil's sugar output in the 2009/2010 crop year to 35.1 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 35.9 million.
The world's largest sugar producer churned out 31.1 million tonnes of the sweetener in the 2008/2009 crop year.
"Rain during the harvest is reducing the expected volume of sugar to be produced, and that's basically what has led to the revision," Nastari told Reuters on the sidelines of a sugar conference in the Indian capital.
"The 23.3 million tonnes (are) the exportable surplus. Actual exports could be a little bit higher than that. That is the availability for exports," said Nastari, adding that the exportable surplus was 21.1 million tonnes in the previous crop year.
Brazil's main center-south cane harvest was unusually wet in June and July when the region's dry season typically allows easy fieldwork and high sucrose levels in the cane, dealers said.
The extra moisture has lowered sucrose levels and will likely reduce the region's final sugar and ethanol output from initial forecasts, although output should still be up from last year due to the bigger crop, they said.
Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of cane-based ethanol and sugar. The center-south accounts for about 90 percent of national cane output.
Brazil is the main source of raw sugar for main consumer India, whose purchases sent New York sugar futures to their strongest in nearly 30 years.
Indian demand fuelled by poor domestic crops, combined with a slow harvest in top producer Brazil, has driven a rally in sugar this year, in which raw sugar futures more than doubled.
India extended its buying spree on international sugar markets, traders said on Tuesday, while officials warned again of ultra-low national stocks to buffer the sort of supply shortfalls seen this season.
Raw sugar futures on ICE rose more than one percent in early trade on Tuesday to the highest level in 28-1/2 years, buoyed by demand from India. The October contract <SBc1> hit a high of 24.85 cents a lb, the highest level for the front month since February 1981.
"The problem is that the world is already maximizing sugar production, including Brazil," said Nastari. "I think the tendency is that we have not seen the stop of the rise yet."