Sao Paulo, Sept 17 - Wilted coffee trees in Brazil will limit the country's 2010/11 coffee crop to 45 million to 47 million 60-kg bags, the world's largest coffee cooperative, Brazil's Cooxupe, said on Thursday.
Soaring fertilizer prices last year prompted farmers to limit its use, leaving trees weaker with fewer leaves, Cooxupe trader Lucio de Araujo Dias told Reuters. He also estimated unseasonal rains had caused 30 percent of this year's crop to deteriorate.
The 2010/11 crop falls in a higher-output year in the biennial cycle. Dias estimated the last high-output crop year, 2008/09, had produced about 48 million 60-kg bags, but the condition of trees would limit next year's crop.
"What we are seeing is that the coffee trees are quite damaged, particularly due to lack of treatments," Dias said, cautioning that his estimate was rough because the crop was still more than seven months away.
But he said the signs were not good, and said he was disheartened by the unhealthy appearance of trees in key growing areas he had visited recently, including Varginha and Alfenas in Brazil's main coffee state Minas Gerais.
"I am not optimistic for next year. A lot of analysts are expecting a very good harvest but I think next year's crop will leave a lot to be desired," he said.
The government's crop supply agency, Conab, said the 2008/09 higher output year produced 46 million bags, but Conab's estimates are consistently lower than those of industry players.
SLOWER SALES
Dias said unseasonal rains during the normally dry harvest period had damaged about a third of the crop in the world's top coffee grower. Beans drying in the open air often fermented when they got wet, imparting an astringent taste.
"Normally I bring in 95 percent hard cup (quality) or better but this year it is only 50 percent (of Cooxupe purchases). The loss of quality affected more than 30 percent of the harvest," he said.
"The quality of the harvest was very poor. Some of it wasn't picked at all," he said.
Right up until harvesting began, hopes were high for the 2009/10 crop which enjoyed optimal rainfall during its developmental stages but farmers had to battle through weekly showers to gather the cherries from the trees.
Some growers had mechanical driers which work like large clothes driers but these have a limited capacity and could not keep up with the pace of the harvest, requiring several days to dry each load.
Coffees that would have been high-quality fine cup grade, are now instead being sold as cheaper rio or riado.
One silver lining to the miserable season farmers have endured has been a string of government measures which they hope will force coffee prices up. These include direct government purchases of beans which would be warehoused.
The government will also receive physical coffee from farmers wishing to use it instead of money to repay loans. It has also given farmers longer to repay debts and cut interest rates, leaving them more cash and more clout to haggle for better prices from buyers.
Dias said growers were turning down the current rates on offer for their supplies and hanging on to their produce.
"We usually buy about 20,000 bags every day. Now we are at 8,000," he said.