Sao Paulo, Sept 23 - Brazil's center-south 2009/10 sugar output should fall 600,000 tonnes from July's estimate as excess rains have reduced expected cane yields, Job Economia analysts said on Wednesday.
Sugar production should total 30.6 million tonnes in the region, down from 31.2 million tonnes seen in July.
Cane crush in the season (April-March) is seen at 550 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous estimate and up from the 500 million crushed in 2008/09.
But the average concentration of sucrose was forecast at 138 kg per tonne of cane, down from 141 kg/t seen in July.
"I think it's going to be a long crop, through December, with mills trying to process as much cane as they can," Julio Maria Borges, director at JOB Economia, told Reuters.
Ethanol production is forecast at 25.7 billion liters, down from 26.2 billion liters seen in July, he said.
In 2008/09, the center-south produced 26.8 million tonnes of sugar and 25.1 billion liters of ethanol, according to Job.
Brazil's northeast region, which just started harvesting the 2009/10 crop, is expected to crush 63 million tonnes, down from a 70-million-tonne estimate released in July, due to weak fertilizer use, Borges said.
The region harvested 64 million tonnes of cane in 2008/09.
On Thursday, the Sugar Cane Industry Association, Unica, will release a revised estimate for cane crushing and sugar/ethanol output.
Crushing in Brazil's center-south has been slowed since June by above-average rainfall in what is traditionally the dry period in the region. Fields appeared to be drying out in early August, but heavy rains returned in the second half of the month to complicate work for mills.
So far in September, rains have been twice the usual level in Sao Paulo state, which accounts for about 60 percent of the national cane output.