Abidjan, Sept 24 - Ivory Coast's 2009/10 cocoa crop will be either level with or lower than the 2008/09 harvest, due to disease and ageing plantations, the head of the country's cocoa management committee said on Thursday.
"We have dozens of teams on the ground to refine our forecast, which we will finalise by the end of the month. (But) we should have a harvest that is level, or lower (than this year)," Gilbert Ano told Reuters a week before the 2009/10 season begins.
The industry chief's concerns are shared by analysts and exporters who fear declining output from the world's top grower, which has largely maintained annual cocoa production around 1.3 million tonnes despite years of political and military strife.
Delayed reforms and investment are beginning to hit cocoa arrivals at ports, which were around 1,160,000 tonnes with just a week left in the 2008/09 season, supporting world cocoa futures markets, which have hit highs in recent weeks.
Ano recognised that Ivory Coast will miss its target of 1.2 million tonnes for the 2008/09 season, and warned that changing weather patterns and, in particular, disease, were becoming a serious threat to the future of Ivorian cocoa.
He said the country's CNRA agricultural research centre was seeking ways to fight swollen shoot disease.
"Swollen shoot, which we call the AIDS of cocoa here, will become a big problem. That is why we are working the CNRA to find a quick solution," he said.
Too much rain and the spread of black pod, another disease, contributed to a poor 2008/09 crop. Chaos amongst the industry's administrators, some of whom have been arrested on corruption charges, were also obstacles to sector reforms.
These reforms, which analysts say are urgently needed to prevent Ivorian cocoa production from plummetting in coming years, are also being blocked by repeated delays in holding elections meant to end a seven-year political crisis.
PLANTATIONS SUFFERING
Cocoa futures in London fell under pressure from the stronger dollar but ICE cocoa was trading at 2,038 pounds per tonne at 1510 GMT on Thursday, still in sight of its recent 14-1/2 year high.
Fears over the Ivorian crop are supporting the markets.
The latest date for much-delayed presidential elections which are seen as key to ushering in the political stability necessary to enact real reforms of the cocoa sector is Nov. 29, but many observers believe the West African nation is unlikely to meet that deadline either.
Exporters say this bodes badly for the long term.
"I am worried, the plantations are suffering and if they are not treated, cocoa will be finished for Ivory Coast in 10 years," Paul de Petter, food manfacturer and major cocoa buyer Barry Callebaut's managing director for Africa, told Reuters on Wednesday.
De Petter also painted a glooming picture for the coming season. "The trees are not developing well. We have beans but they are small and if the situation remains like this, production will go down."