Sao Paulo, Sept 24 - Brazil's center-south is expected to crush 529.5 million tonnes of cane in the 2009/10 season (April-March), the Cane Industry Association (Unica) said on Thursday, down from its April forecast of 550 million.
Forecasts for sugar and ethanol production in the region were also cut, due to higher-than-usual rains. Center-south sugar output should reach 29.4 million tonnes, down from the 31.2 million tonnes seen in the association's April forecast.
Ethanol output was also revised downward to 23.8 billion liters from 26.3 billion liters seen previously.
If Unica's crush forecast is confirmed, more than 50 million tonnes of cane will be left in the fields to be processed next season. This is equivalent to more than 2.5 million tonnes of sugar and 2 billion liters of ethanol.
"Weather permitting mills could bring forward the beginning of the 2010/11 season (which officially starts on April 1), such as happened in the current season," Unica's technical director, Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, said.
Mills are seen increasing the share of the total cane crush they use to produce sugar to 43 percent because of attractive prices for the sweetener, with the remaining 57 percent going to ethanol.
In April, Unica had expected that sugar production would consume a slightly lower 42 percent of the crush. By comparison, in the 2008/09 crop, nearly 40 percent went to sugar production and the rest to ethanol.
International sugar prices are just off 30-year highs.
The wet weather has caused a surge in the water content in the cane crop being harvested, reducing so-called industrial yields or the amount of sucrose obtained from a tonne of cane.
In Unica's latest crop estimate, it said yields should fall to 135 kg of sucrose per tonne of cane, compared with 141 kg seen in April.
Some areas of the center-south, which accounts for 90 percent of Brazilian cane output, have had the biggest amount of rain in 50 years, Padua said, adding weather forecasts show showers will continue in the coming months.
Seventeen new cane mills that came on line this year should help offset some of the slow progress in harvest caused by the heavy rains, Padua said.
Exports were also revised downwards. Sugar exports are forecast at 20.7 million tonnes, down from 21.7 million tonnes seen in April, while ethanol exports were put at 2.8 billion liters, down from 3.6 billion liters a year ago.