Abidjan, Sept 30 - Ivory Coast's cocoa harvest is set to fall again with output for 2009/10 crop likely to range between 1 million and 1.15 million tonnes, a Reuters poll of exporters and traders in the world's top grower found on Wednesday.
The eight organisations polled saw the October-March main crop ranging from 800,000-950,000 tonnes and put the smaller mid-crop between 150,000-250,000 tonnes.
Reflecting market perceptions that have already pushed cocoa prices to multi-month highs in New York and London, four of the organisations also predicted a global cocoa supply deficit of up to 100,000 tonnes next year as world demand rises.
The Ivorian crop estimates fall short of the output for the current season ending on Wednesday, with port arrivals already around 1.19 million tonnes. They support perceptions of a slow decline in Ivorian production after output remained stable at around 1.3 million tonnes despite years of political crisis.
"There is a lack of support from the structures in the sector for the producers. The quality of the product is often poor and the farms are not well maintained or treated," said an exporter, who like all others, asked not to be named.
Other exporters and traders interviewed echoed analysts' concerns over ageing cocoa trees, the spread of disease and the lack of reform of a poorly managed sector.
"Quality is a concern. So is the organisation of the sector," another exporter said.
The Ivorian cocoa sector is being managed by an interim committee after administrators were replaced following investigations into graft last year.
ELECTIONS CONCERNS
Concrete reforms hinge on elections which were first due in 2005 and are now meant to take place on Nov. 29. Most observers say the polls are likely to be further delayed by several months.
"It is clear that there is a lot of speculation at the moment because the market is anticipating problems here because of the elections," Paul de Petter, manager of Swiss chocolate firm Barry Callebaut, told Reuters.
Four of the organisations polled also gave a forecast on the global cocoa supply and demand balance, foreseeing a deficit ranging between 30,000 and 100,000 tonnes, which was largely dependent on the state of the global economy.
A deficit in 2009/10 would be the fourth in as many crops.
Increased cocoa grindings as the global economic crisis eases and fears over the Ivorian crop have helped support international cocoa futures prices, which have been hitting multi-month highs in both New York and London this month.
The prices have since eased somewhat. London March cocoa was trading at 2,073 pounds per tonne at 1236 GMT while ICE December cocoa was trading at $3,115 per tonne.
Foreign-based cocoa traders interviewed in the crop poll tended to give estimates at the higher end of the spectrum while Ivory Coast-based firms generally gave figures at the lower end.
The estimates from exporters and traders follow a prediction last week by Gilbert Ano, the head of the interim body currently managing the Ivorian cocoa sector, that the 2009/10 crop would be either level with or lower than the 2008/09 harvest.
A leaked report prepared by former colonial power France's embassy in Abidjan this month predicted a 100,000-tonne fall due to poor management and the lack of reforms.