Nusa Dua, Indonesia, Oct 9 - Anticipating another hefty rice surplus, Indonesia could revive plans to export the grain in 2010 as the threat from the El Nino weather pattern is seen easing, a senior official said on Friday.
Southeast Asia's biggest economy can export up to 2 million tonnes of an expected surplus of 3.5 million tonnes of rice next year, said Mohammad Ismet, director for planning and business development at Indonesia's state procurement agency, Bulog.
There are indications that "the impact of El Nino would be weak, so there will be no significant impact on production," Mohammad told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a rice conference in Bali.
El Nino -- which can bring drought and weaker monsoons in Asia -- may only delay rice planting in areas outside key producer Java by up to 20 days, he said.
Indonesia was one of the top grain importers in 2007 after purchasing 1.3 million tonnes of rice. But it has managed to skip imports since last year after accumulating large surpluses.
The government said in August it was looking at a rice surplus of 2.3 million to 2.8 million tonnes by the end of the year, bigger than its surplus of 1.6 million tonnes in 2008, its first surfeit in almost two decades.
"We are trying our best not to import next year, and my prediction is we will not import. There would be a surplus of 3.5 million tonnes," said Mohammad.
Rice imports are tightly regulated in Indonesia, with Bulog the only importer. The agency has said it will hike procurement from domestic farmers this year to 4.0 million tonnes from a previous goal of 3.8 million.
It targets to end 2009 with at least 1.5 million tonnes in rice stocks.
"Our first priority is to meet our consumption. We should have a safe amount of reserves," said Mohammad.
Bulog had exported a small 3,000-4,000 tonnes of rice this year, and is considering much larger volumes in 2010, he added.
"There is a learning curve to be an exporter," Mohammad said, adding that Middle East countries numbered among the likely destinations for Indonesia's exports. "This year, we are learning to be an exporter. Next year will be better."