London, Oct 14 - World sugar output is forecast to increase to 156.9 million tonnes in 2009/10 from 150.0 million in 2008/09, German analyst F.O. Licht said in its first forecast for sugar production in the new crop year.
Licht said in a statement high sugar prices could trigger a significant increase in supply for 2010/11.
Sugar has been one of the best-performing commodities in 2009 as raw sugar prices doubled by early September since the start of the year, driven higher by India's surging appetite for the sweetener after it shifted to net importer from exporter.
"The price rise has come relatively late in the season to trigger plantings that will be ready for harvesting in 2009/10," Licht said in a statement.
"As sugarcane needs 12 to 18 months to mature, the cane that has been planted in response to this year's price surge will only be ready for harvesting for the 2010/11 crush."
Poor weather in the world's two largest producers, Brazil and India, will limit the potential rise in 2009/10 output in these countries, Licht said.
Furthermore, the global financial crisis has restrained sugar producers' opportunities to expand capacities, the analyst said.
"As the market can therefore be expected to remain tight in 2009/10 -- and possibly extremely tight at times -- importers will need to secure supplies that will carry them over to the 2010/11 season when relief can be expected," Licht said.
World cane production in 2009/10 is estimated to reach 123.7 million tonnes, up from 118.0 million last season.
The increase is largely due to a 2.2 million tonne rise in Brazil and one of 1.6 million in India, with smaller increases in countries such as Thailand, Pakistan and Mexico adding to the total.