Sao Paulo, Oct 21 - Brazil, the world's top sugar producer, will harvest around 590 million tonnes of cane from the center-south in 2010/11, up 9 percent from an expected 542 million tonnes in the current season, analysts Job Economia said on Wednesday.
Sugar output from the next crop would likely reach 33 million tonnes in the region, up from 29.2 million tonnes in 2009/10.
Ethanol production is seen growing to 28.9 billion liters (7.6 billion gallons) from the 24.7 billion liters expected of the current center-south crop.
Atypically wet weather in the past several months of the 2009/10 harvest season has hurt cane yields, as well as sugar and ethanol output. But the moisture favors the next crop that is maturing for harvest to start in March 2010.
The center-south accounts for about 90 percent of Brazil's cane.
Cane crush in the northeast is expected to reach 64 million tonnes, up slightly from 63 million in 2009/10, Job said.
Brazil's total sugar output next season is expected to reach 37.7 million tonnes, compared with 33.9 million in 2009/10, including output from the northeast of 4.7 million tonnes, unchanged from this season.
Brazilian sugar exports, however, are only expected to rise modestly to 26.7 million tonnes from 26 million in 2009/10, since initial stocks in the 2010/11 season will be much lower, said Julio Maria Borges, director of Job Economia, which was hosting a seminar on Wednesday.
Total ethanol output next season in Brazil is put at 31.1 billion liters, up from 26.8 billion liters in 2009/10.
"All the increase in crushing will be from cane left from the 09/10 season. Planted area will grow but not significantly," Borges said.
Analysts and producers say between 40 million and 50 million tonnes of cane in the center-south will be left to be processed next season due to excess rains since June. Showers prevent harvesters from operating in the cane fields.
Borges said capacity to produce sugar in the center-south will grow by 1.4 million tonnes next season from 2009/10 as some mills invest to expand.