Seoul, Sept 19 - South Korea's top retailer Lotte Shopping should focus on improving margins at its discount stores and spend wisely some of its $3.54 billion IPO proceeds if it is to woo back disenchanted investors.
Lotte on Monday forecast a 21 percent rise in 2006 net profit to 661.6 billion won ($692.6 million), shy of market forecasts for 682.4 billion won compiled by Reuters Estimates, prompting some brokers, including Nomura Securities, to trim their expectations for the firm.
With Lotte holding billions of dollars after failing to buy local outlets of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. or Carrefour , investors also need a clear roadmap for how Lotte plans to spend the proceeds from the world's biggest retail IPO.
"Department store sales are too vulnerable to domestic demand. It really should focus resources on (discount chain) Lotte Mart to lure investors back," said Kim Sung-ki, fund manager at SH Asset Management.
South Korea's biggest department store and No.3 discount store operator, derives 30 percent of revenue from its discount store business, but 90 percent of operating profit still comes from its ubiquitous Lotte Department Store chain.
Shares in Lotte have fallen by more than a fifth since the January IPO, valuing the firm at 13.5 times forward earnings -- versus 18.5 times for rival Shinsegae Co. Ltd. whose shares rose 10.6 percent in the same period.
"Lotte may look cheap at current prices, but I see little upside potential before it turns around its discount store business," said Chung Kyun-sik, who has Lotte shares in the $251 million fund he manages at Shinhan BNP Paribas Investment Trust Management.
SWITCH FOCUS
Lotte has 40 percent of South Korea's $17 billion department store sector, but only 12 percent of the $22 billion discount store sector, the fastest-growing segment of the retail market with 16 percent annual growth since 2002.
The department store sector has stagnated, growing just 0.1 percent a year after a credit card debt crisis depressed spending and pushed consumers towards low-priced malls.
Despite hopes Lotte Mart's operating margins will improve as a result of aggressive expansion following the IPO, margins slipped to 2.8 percent in the second quarter from 3.2 percent in 2005 -- way below 8 percent at Shinsegae, the biggest discount store and No.3 department store chain.
"Expectations Lotte Mart's profitability will improve was a key reason why the IPO was successful. I now doubt this will happen any time soon," said Na Hong-suk, analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities.
"The best way to raise its profile quickly could be acquisitions, but only when made at good prices -- not like the Woori deal," Na said, referring to Lotte's $487 million purchase of Woori Home Shopping last month which valued Woori at 18 times earnings versus 8.5 times for GS Home Shopping .
Analysts also said Lotte should ditch its conservative corporate culture and start selling itself to investors.
The firm has earmarked 4.7 trillion won for 2006-2008 investment, part of which will be spent to open about 10 discount stores a year.